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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting between eight and 14 named storms. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, could see three to six of these storms intensify into hurricanes, with one to three potentially becoming major hurricanes. This outlook follows the recent movement of the first tropical wave off the coast of Africa.
NOAA attributes the expected decrease in activity to the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic, which can disrupt storm formation. However, NOAA acknowledges that competing factors, such as warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and weaker trade winds, could still support storm development.
Despite the below-normal forecast, NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness. Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service director, stated, "It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season." The agency urges residents in hurricane-prone areas to review their preparedness plans.
The 2026 season follows a year with 13 named storms, none of which made landfall in the continental United States. While El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, NOAA warns that impactful storms can still occur. The agency's forecast does not predict specific storm tracks or landfall locations, as these are determined by short-term weather patterns.
Forecasters from AccuWeather and Colorado State University also predict a below-average season, aligning with NOAA's outlook. Residents are advised to stay informed and prepared, as the potential for severe weather remains.